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UPDATED: Carney's Liberals win by a hair, Poilievre and Singh lose their seats

With a lead in both seats and popular vote, the Liberal party is projected to win the 2025 federal election, although it's too soon to say whether the tight race will result in a majority or minority government
mark-carney
Mark Carney, leader of the Liberal Party of Canada

OTTAWA — Liberal leader Mark Carney has led his party to victory, although its too close to say whether they will win a majority or another minority.

Meanwhile, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has lost his own seat.

The Liberal Party has secured a fourth straight mandate, elected in 155 ridings and leading in 13 more, for a total of 168 seats as of 8 a.m. Tuesday — four seats away from the 172 needed to form a majority. 

Up by 24 seats and only two per cent ahead of the Conservatives in the popular vote, its a narrow win for the Liberals.

Nevertheless, it's a political comeback that didn’t seem possible just a few months ago, when Justin Trudeau was at the helm of an unpopular minority government and the Conservatives and their leader Pierre Poilievre were dominating public opinion polls.

While Monday night spelled defeat for Poilievre, it was worse for the New Democrats.

The NDP will likely be reduced to only 7 seats, losing official party status. Jagmeet Singh lost his own seat and has resigned as party leader.

The national divide was reflected in Northwestern Ontario, where Liberal cabinet minister Patty Hajdu has held on to her seat in Thunder Bay-Superior North with a comfortable lead over Conservative Bob Herman while Conservative incumbent Eric Melillo has won easily in Kenora-Kiiwetiinoong besting the Liberals Charles Fox. 

The two parties were in a much closer race for the Thunder Bay-Rainy River seat but Liberal incumbent Marcus Powlowski ultimately held on to his seat with a 5 per cent lead over Conservative challenger Brendan Hyatt.

NDP candidates in the region all placed a distant third, with Joy Wakefield in Thunder Bay-Superior North and Yuk-Sem Won in Thunder Bay-Rainy River each picking up about 7 per cent of the vote. Tania Cameron in Kenora-Kiiwetiinoong earned 13 per cent.

Winning his own seat in the Ottawa-area riding of Nepean, it's the first time Carney has been elected to public office, vaulting directly to the country's top job.

The election was called on Sunday, March 23. At dissolution, the Liberals had 153 of 338 seats in the House of Commons – the most of any party, but not a majority. With five seats added in boundary redistribution, this election was for 343 seats nationwide.

This is a developing story. Updates will be provided as more information becomes available.

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